ScienceGuy

The study investigates the impact of monetary policy on CO2 emissions while controlling for income, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and accounting for structural breaks using annual data from 1971 to 2014. By utilizing the extended environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework and dynamic ARDL simulations, the results reveal that the Kuznets curve is a long-run phenomenon for India, not a short run. Moreover, interest rates are identified to possess a significantly positive relation with emissions in the short as well as long run. This indicates the sub-optimality of the present monetary policy for sustainable growth. Hence, it suggests incorporating environmental impacts into the central bank’s framework. Additionally, trade is found to be inelastic and weakly beneficial for the environment, while FDI is elastic and significantly detrimental. The latter evidence supports Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Further, following Itkonen (Itkonen, Energy, 2012) arguments, the study demonstrat

The course by IMF provides an overview of empirical methods and analytical techniques for assessing the impact and effectiveness of development innovations at product and policy levels and the way to measure what's working. The course provides tools to evaluate the causal impact of various policies and programs. I.  Impact Evaluation as an instrument of Development Policy II. RCT Basics III. Statistical Concepts IV. Statistical Inference V. Regression Analysis VI. Imperfect Compliance and Attrition VII. Power Calculations VIII. Differences in Differences IX. Regression Discontinuity Designs Click here to read my notes

Machine learning is the science of getting computers to work without being explicitly programmed. The Machine learning course offered by Stanford University provides an introduction to this. It flows very smoothly and in the way that the hardest and toughest topics get absorbed with ease. Indeed, the instructor has delivered and designed an incredible course. For starting ML, no other resource could be better, I.  Introduction     - Introduction     - Model and Cost function     - Parameter learning     - Linear algebra review II. Linear regression with multiple variables      - Multiple linear regression     - Computing parameters analytically III. Logistic regression     - Classification and representation     - Logistic regression model     - Multiclass classification     - Solving the problem of overfitting IV. Neural networks     - Neural networks     - Applications V. Neural networks: Learning     - Cost function and backpropagation     - Backpropagation in practice     - Applica

Predictive models are used to form a “credit score” that determines the probability of an application being good/bad at a future date. Different types of models are used in this context, the most common being the Regression Formulae, here, y is our target variable, that is, whether the loan would be good or bad. The representation could be through a dummy variable, probability unit or logistic unit. X’s are the variables that the model considers to reach the decision. Each of these X’s has a corresponding score that gets activated when the variable attached to it is activated. The regression coefficients determine the weightage of the respective variables, that is, factor by which the respective score attached to that variable would be weighted. Example, As discussed, there are different techniques to form the models. Broadly, they can be classified into 2, 1.      Parametric techniques: This includes, discriminant analysis, linear probability modelling and logistic regression. These t

The course by IMF focuses on the application of econometric techniques for modelling the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables, like, consumption, investment etc. and their response to policy changes. I.  EViews Basics II. Introduction to Forecasting     - Introduction     - Estimating/Forecasting Linear equation     - Forecasting III. Statistical properties of time series data     - Introduction to time series data     - Introduction to stationary processes     - Estimation of stationary time series and model selection     -  Testing for non-stationarity and unit roots IV. Forecast uncertainty and model evaluation     - Introduction     - Sources of uncertainty     - Statistics for forecast assessment     - Theil's U statistics     - Introduction to forecasting strategies     - Introduction to structural breaks     - Fan charts V. VAR     - Introduction     - Estimating VARs     - Forecasting with VARs     - Introduction to SVARs     - SVARs - identification, Impulse respons

Notes based on the lecture by Prof. Alwyn Young discuss types of technical processes, Uzawa's theorem and its implications. Click here  to read my notes. In the notes (above), we discussed Uzawa's theorem and the collorary. Also, the longer run data suggested that indeed the income shares are constant, suggesting the growth to be Harrod neutral. However, when we look at the recent data on global labour share, it is evident that this metric is actually falling. Looking at labour share for the USA, Japan, China and Germany, we observe a similar decline. Even looking at the investment shares, we observe a significant change. Looking closely at the aggregate income shares and shares in GDP of IPP (like patents, R&D, software etc), there's a huge rise in these, especially in the post-war period. In the earlier system of NA, IPP (the black line in the above figure) were counted as the intermediate costs. Hence, they were deducted from the income or the output. Sometimes, afte

Recently, I was transacting with a fruit vendor, to whom I owed Rs. 10. I had given him a coin of that amount for the payment (i.e. a rupee 10 coin). However, the vendor refused to accept, stating that the coin is no longer in use. To provide a context in this regard, a rumour had actually begun a couple of years back and spread like wildfire stating that Rs. 10 coin is no longer a legal mandate.  While the RBI has been trying hard since then to curb the fake news and clarify that the coin is a legal tender, at the ground level the message doesn't seem to have trickled. Another important aspect (which was brought forward by a budding economist fellow of mine during our discussion) is that the rejection of coin here does not comment on its carrying inconvenience. This is because the value of Rs. 10 for these small vendors is much more than the inconvenience in carrying them. Simultaneously, they would gladly be willing to accept other coins. For example, instead of 1-Rs. 10 coin, th

These are the notes from LSE MA 207 course which discusses the basic mathematics required for further studies at the postgraduate level in economics. I personally found this course very exhaustive and immensely helpful. Click here to read notes

Today Indian hockey team won the bronze medal, re-writing history after having won an Olympic medal after 41 years. It indeed is a time to rejoice for the entire nation. Consequently, the Prime Minister of India, Mr Modi dialled the Indian hockey team's captain, just post the match to congratulate him. Footages of this call had even been trending on Twitter today. If you hear the telephonic conversation carefully, the PM had said to the captain during the call that his (captain's) voice was dull when India had lost the semi-final match but post-winning bronze his (captain's) voice feels richly enthusiastic. Indeed India did win a medal but simultaneous I believe this response indicates an important psychological feature about humans, that is, how we react to our finishes in competitive events. Investigating into this issue I found that actually studies have been done by psychologists in this area. Specifically, Psychologists Victoria Medevec and Thomas Gilovich of Cornell a

This report is based on an investigative commission that conducted an Operations Review of the Indian Army in the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Being of importance even presently and given the situation we face with the Chinese, keeping this report classified seems justifiable enough to me. The report is really insightful as it delves into nitty-gritty details using simplistic language. Thus it paints the entire scenario beautifully. Simultaneously, it has taken care to be detailed enough. I acknowledge Neville Maxwell for leaking this report out, thereby giving me the opportunity to read the literature of such significance My notes are based on the reports. There are some problems with the scanning of the report, in the sense that Maxwell had scanned and uploaded it. This has made several pages and texts in several places illegible. Also, the report goes through many battles, therefore, containing names of many places. If one is not accustomed to the geography of the region then it becomes re

Here the notes discuss how TFP calculations are actually done in practicality. It also discusses sectoral output functions and uses them to derive aggregated GDP for the economy, introducing the idea of Domar weights on the go. Lastly, it discusses the double deflation vs single deflation method for value-added calculations. This will help us understand the importance of recent changes in the UK value addition GDP accounting change into double deflation.  Click here  to read my notes. Other interesting links for reading: 1. ESCOE 2. Financial express 3. Prof. Alwyn Young lectures

Notes based on the lecture by Prof. Alwyn Young discusses the problems of growth accounting. It describes the growth calculation using the National Accounts, its shortcomings and the potential solution - the chained index. Additionally, the lecture also discusses the growth calculation method adopted by PWT and its potential issues. Click here  to read my notes.

Notes based on the lecture by Prof. Alwyn Young discusses the math described in the paper on PWT construction (Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer). We also discuss the older and the newer PWT's, their differences and issues. Click here  to read my notes.

Notes discuss the basics of TFP. Referenced to Prof. Alwyn Young. Click here  to read my notes.

Notes based on the lecture by Prof. Alwyn Young discuss the basics of production functions, their connection with Solow models and the golden rule. Click here  to read my notes.

Notes based on the lecture by Prof. Alwyn Young discuss prices and quantity indices - Laspeyres and Paasche and analyzes their behaviours. It does it for both consumption and production Gerschenkron.  Click here  to read my notes.

In 1905, while only twenty-six years old, Albert Einstein published "On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies" and effectively extended classical laws of relativity to all laws of physics, even electrodynamics. In this course, Professor Susskind takes a close look at the special theory of relativity and also at classical field theory. Concepts addressed here includes space-time and four-dimensional space-time, electromagnetic fields and their application to Maxwell's equations. Lecture 1 introduces the idea of how time simultaneity changes across frames. It shows then quantitatively, how space and time coordinates relate to each other, leading to the derivation of Lorentz transformations. This also allows discussion of time and space dilations between frames. Lecture 2 introduces light cones and extends discussions on proper time - the invariant in space-time. The lecture then forwards to discuss 4-vectors and their notations to be utilized ahead. Lecture 3 derives energy

The least action principle is an extremely powerful tool that can be used to determine the trajectories taken up by the particle. It simply states that out of the possible trajectories, the particle will take the one for which the action required is the least. The math involves forming a lagrangian and minimizing the overall lagrangian over the entire trajectory. We can think of it as jittering the trajectory slightly and finding the minimum action path in the neighbourhood. Since lagrangian has units of energy, we can think of it as a fancier version of energy minimisation. Owing to its generalised derivation, it is abundantly used in relativistic physics as well. The concept could be further used to derive a generalised energy conservation principle. Do have a glance at these wonderful concepts! Click here to read the quant side of it Some useful external links: 1. Stanford 2. World Science Festival 3. Tensor calculus 4. Physics video by Eugene

Recently I read an article in a reputed magazine discussing the resurgence of COVID in Israel, a country that had vaccinated a major fraction of its population. The article mentioned that 50% of the new COVID cases comprised of individuals who were already vaccinated. Subsequently, it raised the question of the effectiveness of the vaccine. But on second thought, it is not just about this article or Israel but such argumentations take place on day to day basis and across countries. Frankly speaking, I won't blame individuals for misunderstanding is due to the nuances involved. However, I have better expectations from journalists.  Anyways, the situation, as is discussed, actually does not provide any evidence to dilute vaccine effectiveness. Instead, it's a result of misinterpretation arising due to lacking understanding of the Bayes Theorem. To know more, look at the math: So I hope the math gave you some idea about what I am talking about. Presently, there exists cross-sectio