Role of monetary policy on CO2 emissions in India

The study investigates the impact of monetary policy on CO2 emissions while controlling for income, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and accounting for structural breaks using annual data from 1971 to 2014. By utilizing the extended environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework and dynamic ARDL simulations, the results reveal that the Kuznets curve is a long-run phenomenon for India, not a short run. Moreover, interest rates are identified to possess a significantly positive relation with emissions in the short as well as long run. This indicates the sub-optimality of the present monetary policy for sustainable growth. Hence, it suggests incorporating environmental impacts into the central bank’s framework. Additionally, trade is found to be inelastic and weakly beneficial for the environment, while FDI is elastic and significantly detrimental. The latter evidence supports Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Further, following Itkonen (Itkonen, Energy, 2012) arguments, the study demonstrates that the inclusion of the energy-use term as a determinant of CO2 emissions for India underestimates the turning point of the long-run Kuznets curve and the total effect of income on emissions. Consequently, such a model yields incorrect estimates.

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