ScienceGuy

Recently I read an article in a reputed magazine discussing the resurgence of COVID in Israel, a country that had vaccinated a major fraction of its population. The article mentioned that 50% of the new COVID cases comprised of individuals who were already vaccinated. Subsequently, it raised the question of the effectiveness of the vaccine. But on second thought, it is not just about this article or Israel but such argumentations take place on day to day basis and across countries. Frankly speaking, I won't blame individuals for misunderstanding is due to the nuances involved. However, I have better expectations from journalists.  Anyways, the situation, as is discussed, actually does not provide any evidence to dilute vaccine effectiveness. Instead, it's a result of misinterpretation arising due to lacking understanding of the Bayes Theorem. To know more, look at the math: So I hope the math gave you some idea about what I am talking about. Presently, there exists cross-sectio

During my recent chats with some investors, I was questioned by most of them about my thoughts on the "stock market bubble". I realized that there are whispers in the air about the stock market being a bubble currently. My answers to the investors, which I even feel has been, "i do think that the markets are overvalued but I do not believe it's in a bubble. So yes, if you want to invest new, I won't disagree with your decision of waiting a bit". Having said that though, I would like to reiterate that I feel there's a need for correction but not a crash. Discussing bubbles is a tricky thing because the term "bubble" in financial markets do not have a clear definition yet. It's still debated amongst economists about parameters or the way bubble should be defined. So, not only we lack a definition but unsurprisingly we lack tools to judge if a market is indeed in a bubble or not. The bubbles are only realised in hindsight. But then a genuine q

The stock markets have reached record levels and do not show much lethargy yet. Some articles justified these new heights of the stock markets by investors estimation of forwarding PEG. This, some claim, is also leading to the all-time high FDI levels. India's business climate is said to have changed drastically, with some recent estimates of markets hitting 200,000 over the next 10 years. To get a preliminary idea of the corporate environment, I started going through the WDI indicators. Actually, it is quite interesting to see that much has indeed been done to improve the business climate. The taxation system has been shaken up and I believe it's for the greater good.  Do have a look at these graphs to get an idea. However, a genuine question might arise that if the graphs below seem to be improving the business climate, why is the economic situation not improving, actually deteriorated somewhat. In response to this, I would like to point out that it's not surprising to ha