Top CO2 emitters and their growth
Amongst top CO2 emitters (1960-2010) by absolute emissions stand these economies:
1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Russia
5. India
6. UK
7. Canada
8. France
9. Italy
10. Poland
To get some idea about the CO2 emission basis of these economies I plotted 3 graphs for each of them, 1. change in CO2 emissions (kt) and GDP growth rate against time 2. absolute CO2 emissions (kt) and GDP against time and 3. absolute CO2 emissions (kt) against GDP per capita. The document is available here.
I plotted the change in CO2 emissions (in kt) and GDP growth rate with time to get a glimpse of how the growth of the economy depends on CO2 emissions. Further, reading the scale on the change of CO2 emissions axis and GDP growth rate simultaneously would give me an idea about the carbon efficiency of the economy.
What can be seen from the plots is that most of the economies except India and China have highly synchronous GDP growth and change in CO2 emissions. Although causality cannot be established, a high correlation between the GDP growth of these economies and CO2 emissions indicate that the underlying economy might have a heavy dependence on CO2 emissions for growth. Although, upon looking at the scale of the axis "change of CO2 emissions", it can be observed that the amount of change (in kt) for GDP growth is relatively low for some of these economies like UK, France, Italy, Poland, Canada. Its relatively moderate for Japan and Russia but quite high for the USA. In fact, the change in CO2 emissions (in kt) year-on-year competes with China.
The correlation between GDP growth rates and change in CO2 emissions are not as correlated for China and India as they are for the other economies. This indicates that large carbon footprint might indeed be a result of their large population. Their scale on the change in CO2 emissions axis is relatively large suggesting low carbon efficiency of these economies. It's not surprising given coal still is the main source of energy in these economies. However, the emissions required for growth in China is much higher than in India. This might be a result of China being the world's factory requires large energy but at the same time, it has coal dominant energy source.
In China, before the 2000s experienced moderate growth (averaged around 6%) with a low change in emissions required for growth. However, post-2000, there has been a tremendous slide in their carbon efficiency since the change in CO2 emissions jumped vigorously. For India before around 2005, growth rate averaged around 6%, but the change in emissions was quite low and comparable to the other economies. However, post-2005 emissions showed a big jump.
Probably due to the large population and high growth rates the CO2 emissions rise as GDP per capita rises for India and China. For other economies, however, despite being carbon dependent (but efficient), CO2 emissions do not rise with rising GDP per capita. However, again the USA stands following India and China's behaviour to some extent, with emission showing a positive trend with rising GDP per capita.
What I understand from this is,
1. In terms of CO2 emissions, the USA cannot blame and should not blame the developing countries. Given the USA being a developed nation, its own carbon dependence for growth and carbon efficiency is much worse than its counterparts. Thus, the USA needs and must bring significant changes in order to reduce its footprint.
2. China and India indeed are big polluters but mainly due to their poor carbon efficiency. The large emissions from these countries might be a result of their large populations as the volatility of the CO2 emission growth and GDP growth are quite different (unlike for other countries).
3. Other economies although are large emitters but they have achieved high carbon efficiency. It is high enough such that they can increase GDP per capita without increasing absolute emissions.
1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Russia
5. India
6. UK
7. Canada
8. France
9. Italy
10. Poland
To get some idea about the CO2 emission basis of these economies I plotted 3 graphs for each of them, 1. change in CO2 emissions (kt) and GDP growth rate against time 2. absolute CO2 emissions (kt) and GDP against time and 3. absolute CO2 emissions (kt) against GDP per capita. The document is available here.
I plotted the change in CO2 emissions (in kt) and GDP growth rate with time to get a glimpse of how the growth of the economy depends on CO2 emissions. Further, reading the scale on the change of CO2 emissions axis and GDP growth rate simultaneously would give me an idea about the carbon efficiency of the economy.
What can be seen from the plots is that most of the economies except India and China have highly synchronous GDP growth and change in CO2 emissions. Although causality cannot be established, a high correlation between the GDP growth of these economies and CO2 emissions indicate that the underlying economy might have a heavy dependence on CO2 emissions for growth. Although, upon looking at the scale of the axis "change of CO2 emissions", it can be observed that the amount of change (in kt) for GDP growth is relatively low for some of these economies like UK, France, Italy, Poland, Canada. Its relatively moderate for Japan and Russia but quite high for the USA. In fact, the change in CO2 emissions (in kt) year-on-year competes with China.
The correlation between GDP growth rates and change in CO2 emissions are not as correlated for China and India as they are for the other economies. This indicates that large carbon footprint might indeed be a result of their large population. Their scale on the change in CO2 emissions axis is relatively large suggesting low carbon efficiency of these economies. It's not surprising given coal still is the main source of energy in these economies. However, the emissions required for growth in China is much higher than in India. This might be a result of China being the world's factory requires large energy but at the same time, it has coal dominant energy source.
In China, before the 2000s experienced moderate growth (averaged around 6%) with a low change in emissions required for growth. However, post-2000, there has been a tremendous slide in their carbon efficiency since the change in CO2 emissions jumped vigorously. For India before around 2005, growth rate averaged around 6%, but the change in emissions was quite low and comparable to the other economies. However, post-2005 emissions showed a big jump.
Probably due to the large population and high growth rates the CO2 emissions rise as GDP per capita rises for India and China. For other economies, however, despite being carbon dependent (but efficient), CO2 emissions do not rise with rising GDP per capita. However, again the USA stands following India and China's behaviour to some extent, with emission showing a positive trend with rising GDP per capita.
What I understand from this is,
1. In terms of CO2 emissions, the USA cannot blame and should not blame the developing countries. Given the USA being a developed nation, its own carbon dependence for growth and carbon efficiency is much worse than its counterparts. Thus, the USA needs and must bring significant changes in order to reduce its footprint.
2. China and India indeed are big polluters but mainly due to their poor carbon efficiency. The large emissions from these countries might be a result of their large populations as the volatility of the CO2 emission growth and GDP growth are quite different (unlike for other countries).
3. Other economies although are large emitters but they have achieved high carbon efficiency. It is high enough such that they can increase GDP per capita without increasing absolute emissions.
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