ScienceGuy

At the start of 2026, Vice Chair Jefferson strikes a cautiously optimistic tone on the U.S. economy, emphasizing stabilization in the labor market, gradual progress on inflation, and a monetary policy stance that is now closer to neutral. 1. Economic Outlook: Growth Slowing but Still Solid Growth remains resilient : GDP grew at a strong 4.3% annualized rate in Q3 2025, driven by consumer spending and exports. Near-term growth is expected to moderate to around 2% , partly due to the temporary effects of the federal government shutdown. Labor market is cooling, not collapsing : Job growth has slowed, unemployment edged up to 4.4% , and hiring has softened—but layoffs remain low. Jefferson expects unemployment to remain broadly stable in 2026. Labor supply constraints matter : Lower immigration and participation have reduced labor force growth, contributing to slower job creation. 2. Inflation: Progress, but Uneven Inflation has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak , with CPI inflatio...

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Click here  to view an Excel file that models GDP starting from a simple economy and gradually introduces complexity. At each stage, it calculates GDP using all three approaches: expenditure, income, and value-added.

  Click here to read my analysis of this incredible paper discussing how many instructions LLM can follow at once by Distly AI

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Books often simplify the process, stating that central banks "just do it." However, the reality is far more complex than it seems. In this piece, I delve into the intricate mechanisms behind how central banks operate to set interest rates and influence the economy. Click here to read